May was the loudest month I've seen in the Sedona market in over two years. The headline numbers are big, but the story behind them is more interesting than the median tells you. Let's get into it.

Let's get into it.

What I'm seeing

A few patterns from the past 30 days worth looking at:

The high end is driving everything.Median sales price jumped 17.6% last month, but median price per square foot actually DROPPED -4.1%.
Translation: buyers spent more total dollars but on substantially larger homes. The median home sold in May was 2,300 square feet. Investor buyers are stretching for size, not pinching for cost-per-foot. If you're a seller in the $1.5M+ tier with a larger home, the market is finally finding you (if you start out with the right price).

Buyers are ready, but waiting for the perfect property. High interest rates have shaved some buyers from the bottom of the market, but the investors targeting tax strategies and the buyers who are dead set on moving to Sedona are still making it happen. And everyone is planning to refinance when rates come down. If you're an STR investor working through bonus depreciation, cost segregation, or a 1031 timeline, I built a complete Investing in Sedona Real Estate Hub covering all of it.

Pulling from the most recent ARMLS data:

Median sale price: $1,162,500 ↑ +17.6% vs April

Days on market (median): 55 ↑ +14.6% vs April

Active inventory: 191 ↑ +2.7% vs April

Price per sq.ft. (median): $487 ↓ -4.1% vs April

Closed sales: 62 ↑ +31.9% vs April

The high end is driving everything. Median sales price jumped 17.6% last month, but median price per square foot DROPPED -4.1%. Translation: buyers spent more total dollars but on substantially larger homes. The median home sold in May was 2,300 square feet. Investor buyers are stretching for size, not pinching for cost-per-foot. If you're a seller in the $1.5M+ tier with a larger home, the market is finally finding you.

Buyers are ready, but waiting for the perfect property. High interest rates have shaved some buyers from the bottom of the market, but the investors targeting tax strategies and the buyers who are dead set on moving to Sedona are still making it happen. Most are planning to refinance when rates come down. If you're an STR investor working through bonus depreciation, cost segregation, material participation rules, and the 1031 timeline, I built a complete Investing in Sedona Real Estate Hub covering all of it.

The market is binary. 56% of homes sold within 60 days. But 16% sat over 121 days. Priced-right homes are moving fast. Anchored sellers are sitting. Days on market is creeping up overall (48 to 55 median) because that 16% drags the number up. If you're listing right now, pricing strategy matters more than it has in two years.

The pace of AI development over the next 24 months will reshape what real estate investing looks like. This is not a prediction, this is a fact. Nobody seems to be focused on this as deeply as they should. But here are the patterns I'm watching:

If AI continues to displace meaningful chunks of the work force over the next 24 months, income concentration at the top accelerates. The buyers writing the biggest checks in Sedona right now are tech execs, medical professionals, and people whose income has compounded with the AI boom.

If interest rates ease as inflation moderates, the deferred buyers who've been waiting come back. That likely pushes prices higher across all tiers, including the lower level segment that's been quiet.

If economic disruption gets harder in 2027-2028 (tariffs, AI displacement, supply chain disruption), real estate in global tourist spots like Sedona tend to hold value better than assets in larger cities and Sedona's 89% federal land protection isn't going anywhere.

The Sedona real estate game hasn't actually changed much: we continue to have low inventory, millions of tourist driven cash flow and a large batch of investor buyers still buying. But, the macro economics in our global economy is not to be disregarded. Things are shifting faster than I've seen before and as homes continue to appreciate rapidly to keep up with inflation, I can see how the people that have been “waiting for the market to crash” or “rates to come down” will get priced out completely.

If you're thinking about buying in Sedona, this is the moment worth having the conversation.

That's it for June. See you next month.

With gratitude,

Will Hamburg
Associate Broker
Realty ONE Group Mountain Desert
Dyanna Nichols Real Estate Professionals
928-300-8277